DDBA 8560 Week 6 Decision Risk Brief Example

Course	DDBA 8560 Seminar in Healthcare Managerial Decision Making
Week	Week 6
Paper type	Risk brief
Length	About 550 words, 4 pages
Format	APA 7 student paper
School	Walden University
Program	Doctor of Business Administration (DBA)
Updated	October 2026

Free sample paper for DDBA 8560 Week 6

How Wrong Can the Evening Demand Estimate Be Before the Leading Option Loses? A Risk Brief for Brookfield's MRI Decision Separating What Can Be Given Odds From What Cannot and Finding the Switching Value

Student Name

Walden University

DDBA 8560: Seminar in Healthcare Managerial Decision Making

Instructor Name

Month Day, Year

What this page is doingThe title asks the brief's question directly and names its two moves, Knight's distinction and the switching value.

The Estimate Under Test

The options analysis ranked evening hours first with a weighted score of 67.6, ahead of no-show reduction at 61.7. That lead rests on one estimate: that four in five of the new after-hours slots, four weeknights a week, will be booked and used. The figure came from the scheduling supervisor's judgment, informed by the share of patients citing work hours as a reason for missed appointments. It is a forecast, not a measurement.

What this page is doingThe brief names the single estimate it tests and where it came from, so the analysis has one target.

Risk and Uncertainty

Knight (1921) separated risk, in which experience lets us put odds on outcomes we cannot foresee, from uncertainty, in which no record exists from which odds could be drawn. The inputs behind the evening fill estimate fall into both groups.

Some have frequency histories. The no-show rate for routine MRI, 9 percent, has three years of data, and late-day appointments at Brookfield have historically had no-show rates about two points higher than morning ones. These can be treated as risks with stated odds.

Others do not. How many referring offices will tell patients about evening slots, whether patients will accept a scan ending at 9:00 p.m., and whether word of shorter waits will draw patients from competing centers have no history at Brookfield. These are uncertainties. Assigning them probabilities would create false precision.

The Switching Value

If evening fill falls, fewer added scans shorten the wait less, and the evening option's score falls. Holding all other scores fixed, the evening option's total equals no-show reduction's 61.7 when evening fill is about 62 percent. Below that, no-show reduction leads.

[after]

No-show reduction scores 61.7 at every fill rate, since it does not depend on evening demand. The evening option overtakes it at about 62 percent.

Figure 1

Evening Option's Weighted Score by Evening Fill Rate

What this page is doingRather than attach odds to the uncertain inputs, the brief finds the fill rate at which the decision would change.

A Reference Class

Kahneman and Lovallo (1993) argued that forecasts built from a project's own details, the inside view, tend toward optimism, and that checking the forecast against how comparable earlier efforts turned out, which they called the outside view, pulls it back toward reality. Flyvbjerg (2006) turned that idea into reference class forecasting. The closest reference class available is Brookfield's own experience with Saturday sessions, introduced in 2022: they filled 52 percent of slots in their first quarter, 66 percent in their second and 78 percent by their fourth. If evening sessions follow the same path, the first quarter would fall below the switching value and the evening option would trail until roughly its second quarter.

What This Means for the Decision

The leading option is not robust in its first months. A decision maker can use the switching value directly: if early evening fill stays below about 62 percent for longer than the Saturday sessions took to climb, the case for evening hours weakens.

What the Manager Could Do Early

The manager could reduce uncertainty before committing fully, for example by telling referring offices about evening slots several weeks ahead and tracking how many patients ask for them.

Limits

The switching value holds other scores fixed. Lower fill would also reduce supply costs slightly, which this brief ignores.

References

Flyvbjerg, B. (2006). From Nobel Prize to project management: Getting risks right. Project Management Journal, 37(3), 5-15. https://doi.org/10.1177/875697280603700302

Kahneman, D., & Lovallo, D. (1993). Timid choices and bold forecasts: A cognitive perspective on risk taking. Management Science, 39(1), 17-31. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.39.1.17

Knight, F. H. (1921). Risk, uncertainty and profit. Houghton Mifflin.

Reading the DDBA 8560 Week 6 instructions

Week 6 asks you to test the estimate your leading option depends on most. Name the estimate and where it came from. Sort the inputs behind it into those with a history that supports odds and those without, arguing each placement. Rather than attaching probabilities to the uncertain inputs, find the switching value at which the leading option would lose. Show it in one figure. Compare the estimate with a reference class of similar past cases and explain what that comparison implies for the decision, including what the manager could do to learn early. Keep it to three or four pages with one figure, and write so a manager could act on the switching value.

Inside the DDBA 8560 Week 6 example

The sample's opening ties the estimate to the scheduling supervisor's judgment and patients citing work hours. The sorting section places no-show history among risks and referring office behavior, acceptance of late scans and attraction from competitors among uncertainties. The switching section holds other scores fixed and recalculates evening hours' total at fill rates from 40 to 90 percent, finding the crossing at about 62 percent. The reference class section uses the service's own Saturday sessions and concludes evening hours may trail in their first quarter. A short section suggests announcing evening slots early to gauge demand. Limits admit that lower fill would also reduce supply costs slightly, which the switching calculation leaves out for simplicity.

Where the marks sit in the DDBA 8560 Week 6 rubric

Credit concentrates where uncertainty becomes usable. A brief that attaches plus or minus twenty percent to every input and reports a wider total has done arithmetic without analysis. The risk and uncertainty sorting is marked on whether each placement is argued, since treating every unknown as a probability is the mistake Knight's distinction catches. The switching value carries heavy weight because a manager can use it directly. The reference class paragraph tests how well the literature is applied. A clear statement of what the switching value means for the decision completes the brief. Plain explanation of the switching value, so a non-specialist can use it, is rewarded alongside technical accuracy.

DDBA 8560 Week 6 help: mistakes that cost marks

Find the single estimate that, if wrong, would change your recommendation. List what feeds it and ask, for each input, whether your organization has a track record to draw on. Where it does not, resist inventing odds. Recalculate your option scores at several values of the estimate and plot them; the crossing point is your switching value. Look for a reference class inside your own organization if published ones do not fit. Spreadsheet software is enough; no statistical package is needed. A reference class can be your organization's own history with a similar change, such as new weekend hours. State plainly what the manager should watch for in the first quarter if the option goes ahead.

Get a DDBA 8560 Week 6 example written to your instructions

Send the Week 6 prompt and the rubric along with the estimate your options analysis leaned on, and a brief testing that figure comes back inside 24 to 48 hours; a first request is free. Sections that ask for Monte Carlo simulation get it in place of the scenario approach described here.

More DDBA 8560 papers and DBA samples

DDBA 8560 Week 6 questions, answered

Where can I find a free DDBA 8560 Week 6 sample paper?

The full risk brief on evening fill, chart included, is posted here and costs nothing.

Which estimate does the DDBA 8560 Week 6 brief test?

The forecast that 80 percent of new evening MRI slots will be filled.

What is the switching value?

About 62 percent fill, below which no-show reduction scores higher than evening hours.

Which inputs are treated as uncertainty rather than risk?

Referring offices' behavior, patients' acceptance of late scans and attraction from competing centers.

What reference class does the brief use?

The service's own Saturday sessions, which filled 52 percent at first and 78 percent within a year.